So the calendar is about to turn September which means potato chips, computers, magazines, and of course the big board. Are You Ready For Some Fantasy Football? Fantasy Drafts seem more desirable then ever after the sheer thought of having a potential lockout interrupt or cancel regular season games. Maybe you or your commissioner could not wait and felt obligated to have a draft in August. That is okay, I just prefer fantasy drafts that take place after the third week of the pre-season. This allows fantasy owners to be cautioned by unexpected injuries due to playing in meaningless exhibition games. Also as fans, our best impersonation of scouting can occur which includes reclining on a comfortable couch and watching replays on the NFL Network.
Preparing who to select if you are lucky enough to obtain the top overall pick is the easy part. The simple answer is Adrian Peterson. He is the most consistent, durable and clear choice at number one. Peterson is the only running back in the last four years to finish in the top five for running backs. That is exactly what you want out of the first overall pick. The second pick though can be disputed which is why I am here to give you insight on who the correct selection is. Now you certainly will draw heavy criticism from your peers by listening to my advice, but in the long run you will be the last one laughing on your way to a championship. Here are the potential contenders for the second overall pick:
Any QB including Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers
Both are great quarterbacks, yet no quarterback is worthy of such a high selection when every person in your league is starting only one quarterback in standard scoring formats. Vick because of his running ability has the potential to post ridiculous numbers IF healthy. That is a big IF. In Vick’s professional career, he has only played a full season once. He has a young offensive line and his top three receivers all bring baggage to the table. Desean Jackson just came back from a hold out, Jeremy Maclin has a mysterious disease and Steve Smith is injured coming into a new system. I trust Rodgers over Vick but either way the selection of quarterbacks should be made towards the end of the first round not the beginning.
Chris Johnson
Best case scenario-Johnson misses zero games and is the player who ran for over 2,000 yards in 2009.
Worst case scenario-You draft a player who holds out all season and does not to play a single down for your creative team name’s fantasy squad.
Most likely scenario- Somewhere in between a new signed contract and missing regular season action due to injury. Ask Darrell Revis if a pulled hamstring is probable after holding out of training camp and not practicing with your team for the entire offseason. Either way the threat of missing games should scare owners from taking him too high. You can never win your fantasy football league with the second pick but you undeniably can lose your league with the wrong pick.
Jamaal Charles
This early in your draft it is difficult to rationalize drafting a player that doesn’t receive over 20 carries a game. To put this in perspective last season, Arian Foster had 327 rushing attempts, Ray Rice had 307 rushing attempts and Adrian Peterson had 283 rushing attempts. Jamaal Charles only had 230 rushing attempts. Even his teammate Thomas Jones had more rushing attempts with 245. Charles is hands down the best running back option in Kansas City but drafting someone who is not fed the ball on a consistent basis is not worth the price level of the second overall selection. Now add the explosive second year pro Dexter McCluster whose role in the offensive will indeed enhance. The Chiefs, after losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, look like a classic example of a division winner that falls backwards in the standings from 10-6 to 6-10. If they are losing early in football games, which I expect to occur frequently; it will result in even less rushing attempts and more of Matt Cassel trying to play catch up. Again Charles is an excellent football player and it is tough to nitpick, but with the second selection in the draft I want a security blanket that I can rely on and not a hit or miss type player.
Arian Foster
The chances of him repeating his performance from last season are about as likely as Kim Kardashian actually staying married to Kris Humphries. Celebrity couples usually do not last very long and either do elite performances of fantasy running backs. ESPN Fantasy Expert Matthew Berry points out why perfectly:
“Only five running backs in the past 20 years have had 18 or more rushing touchdowns and then followed it up with a season of 18 or more touchdowns.” (Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson)
Foster was a beast last season and will be extremely productive again. Although three of these five running backs will be in the hall of fame and I am not ready to pronounce Foster as legendary after only one season. Consistency of a player is extremely important to take into consideration. This should lower his draft status slightly since the sheer thought of taking a one hit wonder like Billy Ray Cyrus could leave you with an Achy Breaky Heart. (I apologize that was a really lame attempt at humor but I just had too.)
Ray Rice
The safest pick you can make at number two with room for upside. Rice has averaged and will continue to average over 20 carries per contest. The Ravens philosophy has always been to run first. Veteran receivers such as Derrick Mason and Todd Heap have been replaced by the deep threat Lee Evans and a cast of youngsters. At least in the early stages of the season it means offensive coordinator Cam Cameroon will rely on Rice in both the running and passing attack heavily. Until the new players are up to speed and have developed chemistry with Joe Flacco, Rice will continue to be the playmaker out of the backfield we have come to love. Ricky Williams should not be too much of a threat for Rice owners. He will serve as the backup that gets a few carries keeping Rice fresh as opposed to the goal line vulture Willis McGahee became. Committed to the run, the Ravens signed Vonta Leach to assist Ray Rice even further in his overall development. Leach just happens to be the same full back that helped Arian Foster have a magnificent 2010 season and is considered one of the best blocking backs in the game. Ray Rice will certainly witness an increase in both yards and touchdowns thanks to this signing alone.
With all of the players previously mentioned it is fair to expect numbers similar to last year or the least bit worse; however Ray Rice has the opportunity for growth and improvement on his statistics from last season. Running with the Raven Ray Rice is the smart decision to make on your draft day.
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