Week 1 Fantasy Football Trends That Will Go Beyond Week 2

There was certainly some eye dropping performances to open the 2011 season. Tom Brady making Monday Night Football history, Cam Newton having a magnificent debut, The Ravens crushing their hated rivals and the Buffalo Bills scoring 41 points in a blowout win were just a few of the many surprising events to occur. As week 2 approaches let us examine some of the trends that will last throughout the season and impact your fantasy football team.

1. How bout them Cowboys?

The media backlash Tony Romo has received for his poor play down the stretch in week one will have no effect on fantasy owners. Romo still threw for an impressive 342 yards against the New York Jets who arguably have the best cornerback duo in the entire NFL. The word elite can be used to describe Tony Romo except his fourth quarter meltdowns suggest otherwise. (Sound familiar Lebron James?) For fantasy purposes he is a top ten quarterback on any given week with the potential to end the year as a top five quarterback. This bodes well for everyone on the Dallas offense including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Felix Jones. They have all proven to be must starts for your fantasy squad on a week to week basis. So enjoy the fantasy ride even if it means more boneheaded mistakes for Romo and the Cowboys late in games.

2. Pound and Ground will look more like Air Jet

Shonn Greene will have games where he looks like the running back beast you selected high in your draft. Unfortunately the norm will consist of games like last Sunday night where he carried the ball 10 times for no more than 26 yards. The team is now ready to give the green light for Mark Sanchez to air it out on a consistent basis. With a plethora of new receivers to throw to, the Jets will rely less on the running game than originally expected. More performances from Sanchez like he had in week 1 comprising of 335 yards with two touchdowns and an interception will surprisingly be more common than Shonn Greene exploding for 100 yards. As the weather gets colder the Jets will rely more on the running game. However ultimately the Jets know they will only go as far as Sanchez takes them. This is why Sanchez will be given every opportunity to throw regularly in the season to prove he is the man for the job come post season.

3. Rex Grossman will actually be worth owning

In August, this statement was a complete joke. In September it has slight merit. By December you will be wishing you had Rex Grossman. I am officially on the Rex Bandwagon if there even is one. I hate using preseason statistics to prove a point but they are impressive against quality defenses. Against Pittsburg he threw for 207 yards and a touchdown and vs. Baltimore he went for 112 passing yards with a score. Playing all four quarters in an actual game that counted, he torched the Giants for 305 yards and two touchdowns. The Redskins play the Cardinals this week which just allowed Cam Newton to throw for an opening day rookie record of 422 yards. Grossman as of now is probably nothing more than a solid backup quarterback. Although he is worth starting with the right matchup making him a solid contributor to your bench you will want to have on your roster.

4. Philip Rivers is good… MVP good

It is surprising to see the Chargers, who are known to be slow out of the gates, win in week 1. Even if the Vikings totaled a pathetic 39 yards of passing offense. This week 2 matchup between last season’s MVP Tom Brady and Philip Rivers who has the potential to dethrone the title will be the game of the week. Throwing for 335 in his first game, Rivers continues to impress. As a fan you have come to expect these numbers from him on a consistent basis. What is even more amazing is that his top two receivers were not even that productive providing room for improvement. Antonio Gates was solid with 8 receptions for 74 yards but Vincent Jackson contributed a mere 2 receptions for 31 yards. Mike Tolbert was the real star of the game hauling in three touchdowns and nine receptions for those in PPR leagues making him a definite flex play for future matches. Even Ryan Mathews impressed with 45 rushing and 73 receiving yards. Look for Rivers to win MVP honors or at the very least be in the conversation. Expect high productivity all season long from his teammates as well because a true MVP raises the overall level of their supporting cast. The Chargers will be back in the playoffs and be able to “Stay Classy San Diego” as Ron Burgundy would say.

2011 NFL Fantasy Football Draft: Running with Ray Rice

So the calendar is about to turn September which means potato chips, computers, magazines, and of course the big board. Are You Ready For Some Fantasy Football? Fantasy Drafts seem more desirable then ever after the sheer thought of having a potential lockout interrupt or cancel regular season games. Maybe you or your commissioner could not wait and felt obligated to have a draft in August. That is okay, I just prefer fantasy drafts that take place after the third week of the pre-season. This allows fantasy owners to be cautioned by unexpected injuries due to playing in meaningless exhibition games. Also as fans, our best impersonation of scouting can occur which includes reclining on a comfortable couch and watching replays on the NFL Network.

Preparing who to select if you are lucky enough to obtain the top overall pick is the easy part. The simple answer is Adrian Peterson. He is the most consistent, durable and clear choice at number one. Peterson is the only running back in the last four years to finish in the top five for running backs. That is exactly what you want out of the first overall pick. The second pick though can be disputed which is why I am here to give you insight on who the correct selection is. Now you certainly will draw heavy criticism from your peers by listening to my advice, but in the long run you will be the last one laughing on your way to a championship. Here are the potential contenders for the second overall pick:

Any QB including Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers

Both are great quarterbacks, yet no quarterback is worthy of such a high selection when every person in your league is starting only one quarterback in standard scoring formats. Vick because of his running ability has the potential to post ridiculous numbers IF healthy. That is a big IF. In Vick’s professional career, he has only played a full season once. He has a young offensive line and his top three receivers all bring baggage to the table. Desean Jackson just came back from a hold out, Jeremy Maclin has a mysterious disease and Steve Smith is injured coming into a new system. I trust Rodgers over Vick but either way the selection of quarterbacks should be made towards the end of the first round not the beginning.

Chris Johnson

Best case scenario-Johnson misses zero games and is the player who ran for over 2,000 yards in 2009.

Worst case scenario-You draft a player who holds out all season and does not to play a single down for your creative team name’s fantasy squad.

Most likely scenario- Somewhere in between a new signed contract and missing regular season action due to injury. Ask Darrell Revis if a pulled hamstring is probable after holding out of training camp and not practicing with your team for the entire offseason. Either way the threat of missing games should scare owners from taking him too high. You can never win your fantasy football league with the second pick but you undeniably can lose your league with the wrong pick.

Jamaal Charles

This early in your draft it is difficult to rationalize drafting a player that doesn’t receive over 20 carries a game. To put this in perspective last season, Arian Foster had 327 rushing attempts, Ray Rice had 307 rushing attempts and Adrian Peterson had 283 rushing attempts. Jamaal Charles only had 230 rushing attempts. Even his teammate Thomas Jones had more rushing attempts with 245. Charles is hands down the best running back option in Kansas City but drafting someone who is not fed the ball on a consistent basis is not worth the price level of the second overall selection. Now add the explosive second year pro Dexter McCluster whose role in the offensive will indeed enhance. The Chiefs, after losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, look like a classic example of a division winner that falls backwards in the standings from 10-6 to 6-10. If they are losing early in football games, which I expect to occur frequently; it will result in even less rushing attempts and more of Matt Cassel trying to play catch up. Again Charles is an excellent football player and it is tough to nitpick, but with the second selection in the draft I want a security blanket that I can rely on and not a hit or miss type player.

Arian Foster

The chances of him repeating his performance from last season are about as likely as Kim Kardashian actually staying married to Kris Humphries. Celebrity couples usually do not last very long and either do elite performances of fantasy running backs. ESPN Fantasy Expert Matthew Berry points out why perfectly:

“Only five running backs in the past 20 years have had 18 or more rushing touchdowns and then followed it up with a season of 18 or more touchdowns.” (Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson)

Foster was a beast last season and will be extremely productive again. Although three of these five running backs will be in the hall of fame and I am not ready to pronounce Foster as legendary after only one season. Consistency of a player is extremely important to take into consideration. This should lower his draft status slightly since the sheer thought of taking a one hit wonder like Billy Ray Cyrus could leave you with an Achy Breaky Heart. (I apologize that was a really lame attempt at humor but I just had too.)

Ray Rice

The safest pick you can make at number two with room for upside. Rice has averaged and will continue to average over 20 carries per contest. The Ravens philosophy has always been to run first. Veteran receivers such as Derrick Mason and Todd Heap have been replaced by the deep threat Lee Evans and a cast of youngsters. At least in the early stages of the season it means offensive coordinator Cam Cameroon will rely on Rice in both the running and passing attack heavily. Until the new players are up to speed and have developed chemistry with Joe Flacco, Rice will continue to be the playmaker out of the backfield we have come to love. Ricky Williams should not be too much of a threat for Rice owners. He will serve as the backup that gets a few carries keeping Rice fresh as opposed to the goal line vulture Willis McGahee became. Committed to the run, the Ravens signed Vonta Leach to assist Ray Rice even further in his overall development. Leach just happens to be the same full back that helped Arian Foster have a magnificent 2010 season and is considered one of the best blocking backs in the game. Ray Rice will certainly witness an increase in both yards and touchdowns thanks to this signing alone.

With all of the players previously mentioned it is fair to expect numbers similar to last year or the least bit worse; however Ray Rice has the opportunity for growth and improvement on his statistics from last season. Running with the Raven Ray Rice is the smart decision to make on your draft day.