Week 1 Fantasy Football Trends That Will Go Beyond Week 2

There was certainly some eye dropping performances to open the 2011 season. Tom Brady making Monday Night Football history, Cam Newton having a magnificent debut, The Ravens crushing their hated rivals and the Buffalo Bills scoring 41 points in a blowout win were just a few of the many surprising events to occur. As week 2 approaches let us examine some of the trends that will last throughout the season and impact your fantasy football team.

1. How bout them Cowboys?

The media backlash Tony Romo has received for his poor play down the stretch in week one will have no effect on fantasy owners. Romo still threw for an impressive 342 yards against the New York Jets who arguably have the best cornerback duo in the entire NFL. The word elite can be used to describe Tony Romo except his fourth quarter meltdowns suggest otherwise. (Sound familiar Lebron James?) For fantasy purposes he is a top ten quarterback on any given week with the potential to end the year as a top five quarterback. This bodes well for everyone on the Dallas offense including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Felix Jones. They have all proven to be must starts for your fantasy squad on a week to week basis. So enjoy the fantasy ride even if it means more boneheaded mistakes for Romo and the Cowboys late in games.

2. Pound and Ground will look more like Air Jet

Shonn Greene will have games where he looks like the running back beast you selected high in your draft. Unfortunately the norm will consist of games like last Sunday night where he carried the ball 10 times for no more than 26 yards. The team is now ready to give the green light for Mark Sanchez to air it out on a consistent basis. With a plethora of new receivers to throw to, the Jets will rely less on the running game than originally expected. More performances from Sanchez like he had in week 1 comprising of 335 yards with two touchdowns and an interception will surprisingly be more common than Shonn Greene exploding for 100 yards. As the weather gets colder the Jets will rely more on the running game. However ultimately the Jets know they will only go as far as Sanchez takes them. This is why Sanchez will be given every opportunity to throw regularly in the season to prove he is the man for the job come post season.

3. Rex Grossman will actually be worth owning

In August, this statement was a complete joke. In September it has slight merit. By December you will be wishing you had Rex Grossman. I am officially on the Rex Bandwagon if there even is one. I hate using preseason statistics to prove a point but they are impressive against quality defenses. Against Pittsburg he threw for 207 yards and a touchdown and vs. Baltimore he went for 112 passing yards with a score. Playing all four quarters in an actual game that counted, he torched the Giants for 305 yards and two touchdowns. The Redskins play the Cardinals this week which just allowed Cam Newton to throw for an opening day rookie record of 422 yards. Grossman as of now is probably nothing more than a solid backup quarterback. Although he is worth starting with the right matchup making him a solid contributor to your bench you will want to have on your roster.

4. Philip Rivers is good… MVP good

It is surprising to see the Chargers, who are known to be slow out of the gates, win in week 1. Even if the Vikings totaled a pathetic 39 yards of passing offense. This week 2 matchup between last season’s MVP Tom Brady and Philip Rivers who has the potential to dethrone the title will be the game of the week. Throwing for 335 in his first game, Rivers continues to impress. As a fan you have come to expect these numbers from him on a consistent basis. What is even more amazing is that his top two receivers were not even that productive providing room for improvement. Antonio Gates was solid with 8 receptions for 74 yards but Vincent Jackson contributed a mere 2 receptions for 31 yards. Mike Tolbert was the real star of the game hauling in three touchdowns and nine receptions for those in PPR leagues making him a definite flex play for future matches. Even Ryan Mathews impressed with 45 rushing and 73 receiving yards. Look for Rivers to win MVP honors or at the very least be in the conversation. Expect high productivity all season long from his teammates as well because a true MVP raises the overall level of their supporting cast. The Chargers will be back in the playoffs and be able to “Stay Classy San Diego” as Ron Burgundy would say.

2011 NFL Fantasy Football Draft: Running with Ray Rice

So the calendar is about to turn September which means potato chips, computers, magazines, and of course the big board. Are You Ready For Some Fantasy Football? Fantasy Drafts seem more desirable then ever after the sheer thought of having a potential lockout interrupt or cancel regular season games. Maybe you or your commissioner could not wait and felt obligated to have a draft in August. That is okay, I just prefer fantasy drafts that take place after the third week of the pre-season. This allows fantasy owners to be cautioned by unexpected injuries due to playing in meaningless exhibition games. Also as fans, our best impersonation of scouting can occur which includes reclining on a comfortable couch and watching replays on the NFL Network.

Preparing who to select if you are lucky enough to obtain the top overall pick is the easy part. The simple answer is Adrian Peterson. He is the most consistent, durable and clear choice at number one. Peterson is the only running back in the last four years to finish in the top five for running backs. That is exactly what you want out of the first overall pick. The second pick though can be disputed which is why I am here to give you insight on who the correct selection is. Now you certainly will draw heavy criticism from your peers by listening to my advice, but in the long run you will be the last one laughing on your way to a championship. Here are the potential contenders for the second overall pick:

Any QB including Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers

Both are great quarterbacks, yet no quarterback is worthy of such a high selection when every person in your league is starting only one quarterback in standard scoring formats. Vick because of his running ability has the potential to post ridiculous numbers IF healthy. That is a big IF. In Vick’s professional career, he has only played a full season once. He has a young offensive line and his top three receivers all bring baggage to the table. Desean Jackson just came back from a hold out, Jeremy Maclin has a mysterious disease and Steve Smith is injured coming into a new system. I trust Rodgers over Vick but either way the selection of quarterbacks should be made towards the end of the first round not the beginning.

Chris Johnson

Best case scenario-Johnson misses zero games and is the player who ran for over 2,000 yards in 2009.

Worst case scenario-You draft a player who holds out all season and does not to play a single down for your creative team name’s fantasy squad.

Most likely scenario- Somewhere in between a new signed contract and missing regular season action due to injury. Ask Darrell Revis if a pulled hamstring is probable after holding out of training camp and not practicing with your team for the entire offseason. Either way the threat of missing games should scare owners from taking him too high. You can never win your fantasy football league with the second pick but you undeniably can lose your league with the wrong pick.

Jamaal Charles

This early in your draft it is difficult to rationalize drafting a player that doesn’t receive over 20 carries a game. To put this in perspective last season, Arian Foster had 327 rushing attempts, Ray Rice had 307 rushing attempts and Adrian Peterson had 283 rushing attempts. Jamaal Charles only had 230 rushing attempts. Even his teammate Thomas Jones had more rushing attempts with 245. Charles is hands down the best running back option in Kansas City but drafting someone who is not fed the ball on a consistent basis is not worth the price level of the second overall selection. Now add the explosive second year pro Dexter McCluster whose role in the offensive will indeed enhance. The Chiefs, after losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, look like a classic example of a division winner that falls backwards in the standings from 10-6 to 6-10. If they are losing early in football games, which I expect to occur frequently; it will result in even less rushing attempts and more of Matt Cassel trying to play catch up. Again Charles is an excellent football player and it is tough to nitpick, but with the second selection in the draft I want a security blanket that I can rely on and not a hit or miss type player.

Arian Foster

The chances of him repeating his performance from last season are about as likely as Kim Kardashian actually staying married to Kris Humphries. Celebrity couples usually do not last very long and either do elite performances of fantasy running backs. ESPN Fantasy Expert Matthew Berry points out why perfectly:

“Only five running backs in the past 20 years have had 18 or more rushing touchdowns and then followed it up with a season of 18 or more touchdowns.” (Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson)

Foster was a beast last season and will be extremely productive again. Although three of these five running backs will be in the hall of fame and I am not ready to pronounce Foster as legendary after only one season. Consistency of a player is extremely important to take into consideration. This should lower his draft status slightly since the sheer thought of taking a one hit wonder like Billy Ray Cyrus could leave you with an Achy Breaky Heart. (I apologize that was a really lame attempt at humor but I just had too.)

Ray Rice

The safest pick you can make at number two with room for upside. Rice has averaged and will continue to average over 20 carries per contest. The Ravens philosophy has always been to run first. Veteran receivers such as Derrick Mason and Todd Heap have been replaced by the deep threat Lee Evans and a cast of youngsters. At least in the early stages of the season it means offensive coordinator Cam Cameroon will rely on Rice in both the running and passing attack heavily. Until the new players are up to speed and have developed chemistry with Joe Flacco, Rice will continue to be the playmaker out of the backfield we have come to love. Ricky Williams should not be too much of a threat for Rice owners. He will serve as the backup that gets a few carries keeping Rice fresh as opposed to the goal line vulture Willis McGahee became. Committed to the run, the Ravens signed Vonta Leach to assist Ray Rice even further in his overall development. Leach just happens to be the same full back that helped Arian Foster have a magnificent 2010 season and is considered one of the best blocking backs in the game. Ray Rice will certainly witness an increase in both yards and touchdowns thanks to this signing alone.

With all of the players previously mentioned it is fair to expect numbers similar to last year or the least bit worse; however Ray Rice has the opportunity for growth and improvement on his statistics from last season. Running with the Raven Ray Rice is the smart decision to make on your draft day.

2011 NFL Fantasy Football Draft: Sink Or Swim

Following Twitter pages of ESPN analyst Adam Schefter before the NFL Lockout was worse than following Sami and Ronnie’s on-again off-again relationship on the Jersey Shore. Since the NFL Lockout ended, news regarding player movement has been the most exciting two weeks of off-season activity in sports history. (other than the infamous Lebron James Decision) So let us take a further look and break down some familiar faces in new places by examining how these players will ultimately be impacted from a fantasy perspective. In honor of Shark Week, it seemed only appropriate to decide whether or not these players on new teams will sink or swim.

Quarter Backs

Sink: Donovan McNabb- Minnesota Vikings

Mcnabb will certainly be productive and improve the Vikings’ record from last season, but that does not necessarily translate to fantasy points. Mcnabb’s biggest difficulty while on the Redskins was the lack of talent surrounding him. He does have the luxury of handing the ball to Adrian Peterson, but the Vikings depth at the receiver position is not much better than it was in the nation’s capital. Percy Harvin is a younger and more explosive version of Santana Moss yet he has history of missing games due to migraines. Harvin is Minnesota’s only legitimate threat down field. Other options include Bernard Berrian, Greg Camarillo, and Michael Jenkins; not exactly the Three Musketeers. If they were able to resign Sidney Rice then I would be much more optimistic about Mcnabb’s fantasy value. With a weak offensive line protecting him, Mcnabb projects as nothing more than a backup quarterback on your roster. With enough depth at the position, there are other quarterbacks to swim with.

Swim: Kevin Kolb- Arizona Cardinals

For someone who has only started 7 career NFL Games, this guy is drawing a lot of buzz. There is reason though to be optimistic about his potential besides the fact he signed a 5 year, $63 million extension. He has a unique NFL record consisting of the most throwing yards in his first two professional games (391 and 327 yards respectively). More importantly Andy Reid, who is an offensive guru, had enough confidence in Kolb to trade Donovan Mcnabb within their own division last year. If it wasn’t for Michael Vick being an Eagle, the most dynamic quarterback in the entire league, Kolb would still be in Philadelphia. Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald on a regular basis, playing against the weak NFC West competition, and having a highly questionable running attack lead by rookie Ryan Williams and Beanie (Beaten Up) Wells, all bodes well (no pun intended) in Kolb’s favor. With plenty of throwing attempts this season, look for Kolb to be a low end QB1 or an excellent QB2 in standard scoring leagues.

Running Backs

Sink: Tim Hightower- Washington Redskins

Flip-flopping, irrational decision making, lack of confidence; these are all characteristics you can use to describe Congress or for our purposes Mike Shanahan. Putting faith in both seems quite troublesome. Coach Shanahan benched a potential hall of famer for REX GROSSMAN. I know he has two Super Bowl rings as a head coach, but after that move he can no longer be considered trustworthy for fantasy owners. In Tim Hightower’s case he is returning back home after playing his collegiate ball at Richmond. He may be the projected week 1 starter on the depth chart but they have plenty of other options. Ryan Torain in his first season as starter totaled 742 yards in only 10 games. While hurt now, Torain is only expected to miss 1-2 weeks of preseason action which means he should be healthy for the start of the season. They also drafted Roy Helu in the fourth round and could even give Keiland Williams a couple carries per game. Hightower has a propensity for fumbling the football. (8 total fumbles in the last two seasons) At some point this will lead to him being placed in Coach Shanahan’s doghouse. Hightower is really more of a 3rd down power back then starting tail back. If forced to choose one running back in this crowded attack Ryan Torain would be my answer but honestly avoiding all Redskins on offense is the safest play. Remember their starting quarterback is either Rex Grossman or John Beck not exactly the Great White Shark that will intimidate opposing defenses.

Swim: Willis McGahee- Denver Broncos

If you believe that Knowshon Moreno is an every down superstar running back then you can stop reading this. For those who have stayed with me it means you also realize that Moreno has never lived up to the hype of being the first fantasy football running back selected in the 2009 Draft ahead of guys like LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene, and undrafted Arian Foster which still boggles the mind. Moreno is a solid contributor but McGahee went to the perfect team to showcase his skills. New head coach John Fox will certainly implement the running game on a more consistent basis than pass happy Josh McDaniels. Coach Fox mostly used a two back system in Carolina with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. McGahee has a realistic chance of averaging 10-12 carries per game which could result in roughly 200 attempts for an entire season. He should be able to post numbers close to 700 yards and 8 TDs. These are not necessarily amazing statistics but they would certainly help him outperform his preseason composite ranking of 54th according to Fantazzle. Also remember that Moreno is injury prone missing three games last season. Teebow may steal some goal line carries but ultimately McGahee will be the featured player in the red zone making him a strong RB4 option that many fans are overlooking.

Wide Receivers

Sink: Braylon Edwards- San Francisco 49ners

As a diehard Jets fan, Braylon Edwards was mislabeled throughout his tenure. He did not have a case of the drops like his critics proclaimed (only one last season) and his run blocking ability was an underrated strength. Unfortunately for Edwards, his fantasy potential is limited even though his talent is not. The untalented player named Alex Smith who remains under center is the reason for this. How many times is this guy going to receive a second chance? Entering his 7th year as a professional, the 49ners should have pulled the plug on this experiment and found a new signal caller to go along with their new head coach. Instead, they have a mediocre quarterback who is often injured. In 11 games last season, he averaged close to 215 yards per contest. The rationale behind examining this fact is that San Francisco already has plenty of weapons to throw to. On a week to week basis, Edwards will not be a reliable option. Vernon Davis is the clear number one receiving threat and should garner around 100 yards per contest. Also remember that playmaker Michael Crabtree is entering that magical third season when receivers generally blossom. Now add other targets such as Josh Morgan, Ted Ginn Jr, and Frank Gore out of the backfield. Suddenly it becomes a fair question to wonder where Braylon Edwards is going to find reception yardage on a consistent basis. Sure he will snatch his fair share of TDs except there are way too many fish to feed with a quarterback who frankly hasn’t proven he is able to do much more than simply tread water.

Swim: Roy Williams- Chicago Bears

If Jerry Jones read this he would go insane especially after trading away a first and third round pick for the underachieving receiver. Although the truth remains that Roy Williams has a serious chance to resurrect his career in the windy city. He gets to reconnect with offensive coordinator Mike Martz who we all know loves throwing the ball. When they were in Detroit together for two years Williams was highly productive. In 2006 he had 82 receptions, 1310 yards, and 7 TDs. In 2007 he produced 64 receptions, 838 yards, and 5 TDs in spite of missing four games. Even though Williams is a veteran, he is still only 29 years old with plenty of fuel left in the tank. He should easily surpass Johnny Knox as the number one receiver playing with a chip on his shoulder for the Bears. Behind an offense led by Jay Cutler, look for Williams to make a big splash and someone you are going to want to eat up on draft day.

Instant Nobrainer

In recent memory, every baseball season has a few things in common. The Yankees and Sox competing atop the AL East, cheesy wedding proposals at stadiums across the country, prospects who we never heard of being exchanged for all-stars, (that unfortunately includes anybody now just ask all-star starter Scott Rolen whose batting .242 with 5 homeruns) and of course the question should there be instant replay? The simple answer is yes. Why do commentators have to keep asking this routine question about the use of instant replay? The Braves and Pirates recently played a compelling 19 inning game that was decided on a blown call. If you don’t believe me just ask the umpire Jerry Meals who made the call.

"After coming into the locker room, I reviewed the incident through our videos that we have in here and after seeing a few of them, on one particular replay, I was able to see that Lugo's pant leg moved ever so slightly when the swipe tag was attempted by McKenry," That's telling me that I was incorrect in my decision and that he should have been ruled out and not safe."

Okay so let me get this straight. The umpire admitted to a mistake and says with the assistance of instant replay he would have made the correct call. Again let me repeat, instant replay would have resulted in the Correct Call. So why are critics against this again? Joe Torre who I greatly respect, currently holds the title of Major League Baseball Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations. I have no idea what that title entails, but his assessment of the scenario remains ludicrous,

"Most in the game recognize that the human element always will be part of baseball and instant replay can never replace all judgment calls by umpires,"

Maybe not, but it can surely eliminate most blown calls. Do we remember a couple of years ago when people wanted to see instant replay on homerun balls? Traditionalists complained saying it would cause too much of a delay in the game. Next thing you know, controversial fair or foul homerun balls became talking points and more relevant to discuss then the game itself. Shortly after in the middle of the season, instant replay was installed. It has never been debated since and most would agree it has benefited the overall product of the game. So why not extend instant replay?

There remain baseball purists who do not want to taint America’s past time by further using instant replay. (In case steroid users did not already do this) Look its 2011, can we please use modern technology to improve the game. If a sold out crowd and millions of fans watching on television can get the call right, an umpire (who let’s remember gets paid to do this) should also be able to make the correct calls. Usually problems in sports do not have easy answers such as the NBA Lockout, drug testing for HGH, and how to get casual viewers to watch golf without Tiger Woods. Luckily a simple solution is in place for baseball to get the calls right. It is called Instant Replay which last time I checked leads to accurate and Instant Results.

I understand not wanting to use Instant Replay on every pitch trying to determine whether or not it is a strike or ball. Just like in the NBA you cannot have a referee going to the video monitor after every time a charge is called to determine if it is an offensive or defensive foul. But plays at the plate or at first plate have no excuse of being called incorrectly. Find me a fan who says “I wish we didn’t have instant replay so the refs could get the calls wrong.”

Instant replay works in football, basketball, hockey, and tennis. Looking at these sports should only help encourage the use of additional instant replay in baseball. Heck, I am still shocked as to why soccer does not use any form of instant replay after repeated mistakes by referees on plays such as handballs, off sides, fouls in the penalty box and whether or not the entire soccer ball crossed the line for a goal. Sure instant replay slightly breaks the momentum of the game, but as a fan wouldn’t you rather see the correct calls being made if it means an extra five minutes of looking at instant replays? Umpires should also want instant replay to help them on difficult decisions, that way they do not become an embarrassment on the sport and themselves. Remember Jim Joyce who made a name for himself by ruining Armando Galarraga’s perfect game. Umpires should not be rewriting history. Let coaches coach, players play, and umpires ump by using instant replay.